Crisil holds India’s FY 2025–26 GDP forecast at 6.5% amid growing consumption strength
Published By : Chinmaya Dehury
| September 1, 2025 3:11 PM
New Delhi, Sep 1: Rating agency Crisil has retained its GDP growth forecast for India at 6.5% for the financial year 2025–26, citing strong domestic consumption as the key growth driver.
According to the agency, private consumption—bolstered by favourable monsoon, rural demand, and income tax relief announced in the Union Budget—will be central to economic momentum. A projected monsoon at 106% of the long-period average is expected to support agricultural output and ease food inflation, further improving rural sentiment.
Crisil also highlighted supportive macroeconomic factors, including a 100-basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) so far in 2025 and gradual CRR reductions, which are likely to ease borrowing costs and improve liquidity.
The report, however, flagged risks from global developments, particularly the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S., which may weigh on India’s exports and private investment. Nevertheless, strong foreign exchange reserves, a low current account deficit, and robust infrastructure spending were cited as buffers.
The RBI has also maintained its growth projection at 6.5%, aligning with Crisil’s outlook.
While external risks remain, Crisil expects India’s economy to stay resilient, driven largely by domestic tailwinds in consumption, agriculture, and credit availability.
